Will a Russian State Official Declare a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire in July 2026?

Rules This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Russian state official declares a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in July 2026, with the declared ceasefire lasting at least 1 week. The ceasefire declaration must be made publicly by an official representative of the Russian state, government, military, or presidency. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying declaration is made during July 2026, or if the declared ceasefire duration is less than 1 week. Only statements specifically referring to a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire qualify.